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Tools for Transformational Leadership

If you believe in transformational leadership and want strategy that copes with rapid change, scenarios should be part of your toolbox.

One of the problems with future foresight is complexity: thousands of uncertain factors and variables, each with a number of possible states in the future reality, result in information overload. Scenarios simplify this “avalanche of data” into a small number of evocative possible future states (Schoemaker, 1995). Each scenario describes a possible and very different future that demonstrates how these variables might interact. As a result, they sketch the broad strokes of possible futures in a way that the human mind can conceptualise and engage with them.

Scenarios bring new information into the organisation, challenging every member to think about multiple futures. The use of scenarios creates alignment and helps build adaptive learning organisations.

Scenarios: tools for transformational leadership

A challenge for transformational leaders is understanding how to enable the organisation to engage in truly creative strategic dialogue and look to the future in a way that goes beyond long-held assumptions.

Scenarios are modes of foresight that look to the future in a way that embraces the elements of chaos and lack of predictability. They break down complacency and the sense of “that’s how we’ve always done it around here” thinking.

The process of constructing scenarios is transformational, yet it can be simple and easy to use. This process challenges the participants to shift to a mindset that recognises the environment and future as complex, chaotic and unpredictable.

The first steps of scenario exercises require that the organisation thinks actively about information and forces in the environment, current or potential, that could fundamentally challenge the dominant view of what the future will look like (Coates, 2000). For example, a team from an Internet media company might challenge itself to a deeper understanding of social trends and demographics: the trends of blogging (individuals expressing independent opinions in an Internet journal or newsletter) and activist publishing might challenge the assumption that the audience for traditional news will grow at a rate commensurate with the number of Internet users.

During the process, participants engage in a rich strategic dialogue that provokes images of future worlds and plays out the implications for the organisational strategy. Participants are challenged to think deeply about strategy and its implications, and how the organisation might respond. That same online media company, for example, might develop a strategy that sees users of the site gaining a greater voice, merging the lines of blog and news and, at the same time, gaining a worldwide network of reporters.

As the goal is to consider diverse and creative ideas, participants in the process should represent diverse voices through all organisational levels. This process can include groups of any size, from a select few to a broad cross-section of the organisation.

Cross-functional teams that transcend hierarchies are a must; bringing in unusual outside voices from other paradigms is highly recommended. The leader’s role is one of context-setting and sponsorship, but the leader’s voice should be balanced to ensure that everyone feels safe to challenge and contribute (Neilson & Stouffer, 2005).

This process requires qualities of transformational leadership: a willingness to let go of control and break down existing silos and hierarchies, and to take all ideas seriously; an appetite for blurring the boundaries that define the organisation, inviting outside voices to join the conversation. Transformational leaders seek out environmental signals that challenge their plans, paradigms and ways of doing things.

Scenarios in organisational life

The use of scenarios is transformational not only in the process of their creation, but when they are rolled into the organisation. “Writing scenarios is only the beginning. Using them to assess policies is the only way they become useful.” (The Futures Group, 1994)

Scenarios should be viewed, both during the process and when rolled out through the organisation, as catalysts for action. Scenarios are not merely works of fiction. They enable us to take action and make decisions based on a more robust dialogue about what the future might look like. They add most value when they become part of how the organisation plans and takes decisions. Some companies have embedded scenarios in their project evaluation processes, adding the criterion that all projects must deliver a minimum project return under any of the company scenarios (Godet & du Roubelat, 2003).

Transformational leaders recognise that their organisation is a living system – one that can evolve and respond to the changes in its context, given the right tools and stimuli. Scenarios are one such tool: they build sustainability by enabling innovation, adaptability and strategic conversation throughout the organisation. An elegant and simple technique with profound benefits, scenarios offer tools for transformational leadership. Are you seeing the big picture?

Donna Kipps,
Consultant

About Donna Kipps
A specialist in future strategy and change, Donna is currently completing her Masters research in scenario planning.

References
Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. & Jordan, A. 2001: “Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
Coates, J. 2000: “From My Perspective: Scenario Planning”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, pp115-123.
Godet, M. & du Roubelat, F. 2003: “Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios”, Long Range Planning, 29, 2, pp164-171.
Neilson, R. & Stouffer, D. 2005: “Narrating the Vision: Scenarios in Action”, The Futurist, May/Jun 2005, 39, 3, pp26-31.
Schoemaker, P. 1995: Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, Sloan Management Review; Winter 1995; 36, 2; pp25-40. The Futures Group, 1994: “SCENARIOS”. Futures Research Methodology Series; AC/UNU Millennium Project.